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Source: Borealis

The trajectory of prices for four of the five commodity resins — polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), polystyrene (PS) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) — was trending flat-to-down for at least the early part of the second quarter. Contributing factors include sluggish demand as evident from lowered operating rates, lower feedstock costs and the ‘anxiety-inducing’ uncertainty of the impact of U.S. and retaliatory tariffs, which could affect prices of resins and finished goods, as well as demand and trade flows. The exception as noted below is polyethylene terephthalate (PET), in which the tariffs on aluminum are likely to result in higher PET feedstock costs, a reduction in competitively priced PET imports which have traditionally supported the domestic market, and a resultant domestic supply tightness.

These are the views of purchasing consultants from Resin Technology Inc. (RTi); David Barry, associate director for PE, PP, and PS PetroChemWire (PCW); CEO Michael Greenberg of Resintel, the market intelligence service of The Plastics Exchange; Scott Newell, executive VP  polyolefins at distributor/compounder Spartan Polymers; and Mike Burns of Plastic Resin Market Advisors.

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As reported by PCW’s Barry in late March, “Market participants were keeping a close eye on expected tariff announcements by President Trump in the coming week. Announced tariff countermeasures by the European Union were already leading to order cancellations by European buyers, although the tariffs themselves were not scheduled to take effect before mid-April.” Meanwhile, Resintel’s Greenberg summed it up this way for polyolefins, “The bullish sentiment that was pervasive during January and February has been fading during March. Players throughout the supply chain have been acting with elevated caution, primarily buying as needed with a priority to reduce inventories and overall risk.”

PE Prices Flat-to-Down?

PE prices rolled over in both February and March, and were largely expected to remain that way, or possibly drop a bit, within the April-May time period. This despite suppliers’ 5¢/lb price initiatives for each of those months, followed by new April price hikes, mostly in the 5¢/lb range, according to David Barry, PCW’s associate director for PE, PP and PS; Resintel’s Greenberg; Mike Burns of Plastic Resin Market Advisors; and Kevin Mekaru, RTi’s senior ����ý leader commodity plastics.

According to PCW’s Barry, there is “too much negative sentiment” as indicated by traders and processors who had been aiming to reduce their inventories going into April, as they believed PE prices could well be lower in the second quarter. “Domestic demand has slowed as have exports,” Barry says. “In the case of the latter, that includes flat demand in Asia and disinterest from European countries in buying U.S. resin at this juncture.” Adds Burns of Plastic Resin Market Advisors: “The tariff outcome will be a leading economic indicator and influence processors’ behavior.”

Burns also notes that market fundamentals remain unchanged from 2024, and that suppliers will continue to rely on the exports market to manage the record production rates. The January price increase will most likely remain in place through the second quarter, while nonmarket activity and competitive prices should be expected through midyear. Overall, he saw resin availability and prices remaining favorable for U.S. processors, due to flat demand and export challenges. RTi’s Mekaru ventures that there was potential for processors to get a decrease of 2¢ to 3¢/lb before the end of second quarter due to slower demand, and the wrap-up of plant turnarounds that would further amplify suppliers’ inventories, along with the impact of tariffs.

PCW’s Barry at March’s end reported PE spot prices as flat to lower as sluggish domestic and international demand weighed on the market. Suppliers were believed to be reducing operating rates in response to weaker demand. Resintel’s Greenberg notes: “Domestic buyers mostly procured for near-term needs while resellers tapped the spot market to fill in supply gaps, and few were seeking resin for needs beyond April. Exports to Mexico were solid, Latin American sales were workable at lower levels, while our European sales were limited to Canadian-produced resin. Export logistics were strained as containers were in short order, and sellers scrambled to ship out material, causing some high demand destinations to roll bookings. Canadian PE producers continue to stage railcars in the U.S. in case the tariffs are implemented, and we have seen some processors in both the U.S. and Canada seeking alternative supplies.”

PP Prices Down for Now

PP prices in March were set to drop around 5¢/lb in step with propylene monomer contract settlements. Whether this downward momentum would continue into April-May was uncertain. More certain, however, was that PP suppliers’ attempts at any nonmonomer (or margin) increase was very improbable within the first half of this year at least, according to PCW’s Barry; Spartan Polymers’ Scott Newell; Resintel’s Michael Greenberg; and Paul Pavlov, RTi’s VP of PP and PVC.

“Whether this downward trend continues is very much dependent on monomer,” PCW’s Barry says. “Spot propylene prices were rising a bit, and monomer supply availability appeared to be pretty balanced going into April.” At the same time, he and Spartan Polymers’ Newell note that demand for the monomer, as well as the resin, was not great. PP plant operating rates continued to be well under 80%. In fact, suppliers were reported to be throttling back production in the face of sluggish demand. RTi’s Pavlov ventures there would be further downward movement for April with stable prices for May.

These sources looked at overall demand for key sectors, including consumer goods, construction and automotive, and unfortunately did not see the typical seasonal uptick in demand going into the second quarter. “The tariffs uncertainty is bringing projections on demand into question,” Newell says. “The industry sentiment is weak, with some orders cancelled or delayed and, by now, seasonal demand should have been stronger. There is an overall cautious behavior prevailing.” Commenting on automotive PP demand, Newell describes it as a mixed bag, with some segments doing all right, but others not as well.

PCW’s Barry reported spot prices as flat to 1¢/lb lower going into April, as lackluster demand and monomer volatility weighed on market sentiment. “Ongoing concern about pending tariffs and overall economic demand has kept resin buyers on the sidelines,” Resintel’s Greenberg says. “Many processors are working down on-hand resin supplies and finished goods while only buying new material as needed.”

PS Prices Up, Then Down?

PS prices in March appeared to have moved up 2¢ to 3¢/lb as suppliers held firm on passing their 3¢ to 4¢/lb price hikes, but prices in the April-May time frame were likely to rollover and possibly drop, despite the seasonal demand uptick that typically takes place, according to PCW’s Barry and RTi’s Pavlov.

Projections for key feedstocks benzene and ethylene were for sharply lower pricing as PS resin demand remained lackluster. RTi’s Pavlov ventures that processors would most likely get that 2¢ to 3¢/lb back before June. “There is no justification for an increase, barring a major disruption event, and suppliers were understood to be closely matching (low) operating rates to firm orders, resulting in limited spot resin availability,” Barry reports. Going into April, the implied styrene cost based on a 30% ethylene/70% benzene spot formula was at 29.2¢/lb, down from 35.3¢/lb a month earlier.

PVC Prices Up, Then Flat

PVC prices in March moved up 1¢/lb, following the February 2¢/lb increase, owing mainly to unplanned and planned shutdowns earlier in the year, according to RTi’s Pavlov. His projected trajectory change for April-May anticipated that prices would most likely be flat with the potential for a decrease next month. He attributes this to sluggish demand, lower feedstock costs and a 10% increase in new capacity. Also of concern is the impact of tariffs on the PVC exports ����ý. 

PET Prices Moving Up

PET prices in March increased by 1¢/lb and were generally expected to move up by 5¢/lb in April and perhaps more in May, according to RTi’s Mekaru. He attributed this to a combination of an uptick in seasonal demand, higher feedstock formulation costs that were expected to rise as tariffs went into effect, and a potential increase in demand for PET due to tariffs on aluminum. Moreover, retaliatory tariffs were very likely to result in lowering the volume of PET imports, which have long been a major part of the market, and which in turn would tighten domestic PET resin supply.