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Prices of the five commodity resins were on the rise within the first part of first quarter due to contributing factors like freezing weather production disruptions, rising feedstock costs and a higher-than-typical number of scheduled turnarounds for key feedstocks. This, along with the impact of the returning Trump administration’s enaction of tariffs. (As of Feb. 1, 2025, tariffs of 25% were imposed on goods from Canada and Mexico.) 

Michael Greenberg, CEO of Resintel, the new market intelligence service of The Plastics Exchange, summarized the situation thusly, “A 25% tariff equal to 10 to 15¢/lb on resin imports from Canada and Mexico (including polyethylene (PE) produced in Canada by NOVA, ExxonMobil and Dow) — as well as polypropylene (PP) produced by Heartland Polymers — could force these companies to lower prices to remain competitive, reduce sales to the U.S., or shift production between U.S. and Canadian facilities. Spot sales from Canada could decline sharply, although branded prime contracts would likely persist, with some tariff costs shared or absorbed by U.S. customers. While this scenario would strengthen the U.S. spot market, it would significantly weaken the Canadian market.”

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Resin exports of PE, PP and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) to the U.S. from Braskem Idesa could also be affected, and Greenberg noted that retaliatory tariffs by Mexico or China on U.S. resins would further complicate the market.

Source: Baerlocher

These are the views of purchasing consultants from Resin Technology Inc. (RTi); senior analysts from Houston-based PetroChemWire (PCW); CEO Michael Greenberg of Resintel, the market intelligence service of The Plastics Exchange; Scott Newell, executive VP  polyolefins at distributor/compounder Spartan Polymers; and Mike Burns of Plastic Resin Market Advisors.

PE Prices Up for Now

PE prices in January generally appeared to have moved up by 5¢/lb as suppliers sought increases of 5 to 7¢/lb, and at least one major PE supplier had nominated a new 5¢/lb price hike for February, according to PCW’s associate director for PE, PP and PS David Barry; Resintel’s Greenberg; Mike Burns of Plastic Resin Market Advisors; and Kevin Mekaru, RTi’s senior ����ý leader commodity plastics. These sources saw the potential for flat-to-upward pricing for the rest of the first quarter due to contrasting, contributing factors.

RTi’s Mekaru ventured that implementation of another 3¢/lb increase could be applied in February, owing to cold weather impact on production, along with higher feedstock costs and port logistics. He noted that most processors pre-bought material at lower prices and inventory was in the 45-to-60-day range, as export demand was dropping in the first quarter.

PCW’s Barry noted that the temporary ethylene and PE plant disruptions equated to about five days of production. “If production returns to typical levels combined with slowed exports ����ý, February-March prices could be flat,” Barry said. “The one factor that could support further increases is the high number of ethylene cracker turnarounds.” PE spot prices were flat to higher, with higher ethylene prices pushing up export offers nearly 10¢/lb higher.

Resintel’s Greenberg reported that it has been a long time since cost-push factors have come into play in the PE market, but ethylene prices shot back up into the low-to-mid 30¢/lb, compared to early December’s 22¢/lb. Greenberg added that the production disruptions could further support higher prices. Plastic Market Advisors’ Burns noted that over the past nine years, first quarter price increases have averaged 5¢/lb. He ventured that without further production disruptions, this trend will rely on the industry’s index support more than actual market dynamics. He also ventured that there would be additional downward pressure overall on global PE prices going into the second half of 2025 based on poor demand in China, the continuation of new global capacity and the anticipation of lower energy costs.

PP Prices Up

PP prices were primed to move up in January by at least 4¢/lb in step with propylene monomer, which rose to 43¢/lb, according to PCW’s Barry; Spartan Polymers’ Newell; Resintel’s Greenberg; and Paul Pavlov, RTi’s VP of PP and PVC. This after bottoming out in December. Two major PP players had issued non-monomer increases of 3¢/lb, effective February 1. Such a move was unlikely to take place within the first quarter. RTi’s Pavlov noted that despite the temporary production slowdown during the extreme cold, PP supplier inventories remained plentiful, with inventory days at 42. PCW’s Barry noted that PP demand was perceived as lackluster, and that suppliers were constraining output to keep inventories more balanced — a move reflected in higher spot prices.

While unplanned and planned production disruptions were a secondary factor in the higher monomer prices, it appeared that speculative buying was a primary player, according to Spartan Polymers’s Newell. “Industry sources reported that monomer inventories were actually growing,” Newell said, “but were not being made available to the market as hedging/strategic buying activity — buy and store — appeared to be taking place.” All sources expected that prices for PP would continue to follow the monomer, and their trajectory will depend on whether demand rebounds and on how well PP assets are run.

Referring to the American Chemistry Council’s December PP supply/demand data, Resintel’s Greenberg noted that domestic sales were the lowest of 2024 and marked the fourth month of below-average sales. This comes after five months of above-average demand. He ventured about what to expect going forward. “Although there was a lot of price and sales volume volatility in 2024, when the dust settled, overall sales were very typical and just a tad above the five-year average,” Greenberg said. “This last four-month period brought downstream resin inventories back to a neutral position, and now that prices are back on the rise, and the forward curve indicates higher monthly prices ahead. We expect to see overall PP demand pick back up following a similar price/volume cycle that we have seen time and again.”

PS Prices Up

Polystyrene (PS) prices in January moved up by 3¢/lb, driven by higher feedstock costs, according to PCW’s Barry and RTi’s Pavlov. This after reported nonmarket discounts of 1 to 2¢/lb by the end of 2024, in addition to last October’s 3¢/lb decrease after six months of flat pricing. RTi’s Pavlov ventured a rollover of prices for February and March, based on improved feedstock availability.

PCW’s Barry reported that feedstock prices were higher and mixed by the end of January, with ethylene strengthening and benzene declining. The implied styrene cost based on a 30% ethylene/70% benzene spot formula was down 1.3¢/lb to 38¢/lb, but still 2¢/lb higher versus the previous month. Despite some upstream production outages, supplies appeared to be adequate, with operating rates remaining at 50-to-60% to match continued slowed demand. Barry said there could be further upward pricing for PS during February and March, as spot PS prices were on the rise, bolstered further by scheduled turnarounds.

PVC Prices Up, Then Flat

PVC prices were largely expected to move up 1 to 3¢/lb by the end of January, owing primarily to both planned and unplanned shutdowns brought on by cold weather, according to RTi’s Pavlov. This following a 3¢/lb decline in fourth quarter driven by slowed demand and growing inventories. He said prices could roll over in February and March, citing suppliers’ record inventory buildup, with plant operating rates remaining at around 75%.

PET Prices Flat, Then Up

PET prices in January remained flat, having dropped by 5¢/lb through fourth quarter, but increases of 1 to 3¢/lb were likely in February and March. This outlook is based on raw material formulation costs, according to RTi’s Mekaru. He expected higher feedstock prices as a result of scheduled turnarounds and weather-related disruptions. He characterized demand as continuing to be soft until the second quarter, which typically marks a seasonal demand increase. Supply continues to be ample, and there are some unknowns regarding the continued supply of competitively priced imports based on the new  administration’s position on tariffs.